Week 7: Patriots vs. Jets Preview

It happens twice a year, possibly 3 times if there is a playoff matchup, but there’s no doubt that Jets week is always entertaining for Pat’s fans. Without any doubt you will always hear Jets Head Coach Rex Ryan give the Pats some sort of bulletin board type material through his press conference and this week was no different.  Rexy sat down with the media in New Jersey on Monday and proceeded to say “Are they more vulnerable? I don't know. They've lost three games, that's probably more than they normally lose in a season.” He then announced "I want them to know, and they know that I think we're going to beat them.” Bingo! He just can’t help himself. He repeatedly gives the Patriots added incentive to beat his team’s ass and that’s usually how it ends up.

Headed into Sundays 4:25 PM matchup at Gillette all 4 teams in the AFC East are tied for first (or last) with 3-3 records. I’ll be the first to say that it’s surprising as I expected the Dolphins to only win 1 or 2 games this season, and thought the Pats would be 5-1 or maybe 4-2 at this point but it hasn’t happened like that. The Pats have lost their 3 games by a combined 4 points. The Jets on the other hand have lost their 3 games by a combined 57 points. In the end though, all that matters is that both teams are 3-3 and head into Sunday’s game looking to take over 1^st place in the AFC East.

When you compare the teams, it looks as if the Patriots should win in a rout. 

• The Patriots have Tom Brady who has thrown for 1,845 yards, 10 TD, 3 INT, a completion percentage of 65.8% and a QB rating of 97.2. 
• Mark Sanchez, the Jet’s “starting” QB has thrown for 1,125 yards, 8 TD, 6 INT, a completion percentage of 49.7% and a QB rating of 70.9. 

That’s one distinct advantage for the Patriots. 

• The Patriots starting running back Stevan Ridley has rushed 118 times for 524 yards, 4 TD, and 2 fumbles. 
• The Jets starting running back Shonn Greene has rushed 108 times for 378 yards, 4 TD and 2 fumbles. 

Yet another advantage for the Pats. 

• The Pats leading wide receiver Wes Welker has caught 48 passes for 622 yards and 2 TD. 
• The Jets leading wide receiver Jeremy Kerley has caught 18 passes for 315 yards and 2 TD. 

That’s yet another distinct advantage for the Patriots. 

• The Pats offensive line has allowed only 13 sacks to their QB and has enabled the Pats to rush for 944 yards. 
• The Jets offensive line has allowed only 11 sacks and has enabled the Jets to rush for 667 yards. 

Keep in mind however that the Jets are primarily a rushing offense while the Patriots have had a balanced attack with both passing and rushing. When you compare the offenses the Patriot completely have the advantage.

• The Patriots defense thus far this year has allowed 137 points against, have sacked the opposing QBs 11 times, and have forced 16 turnovers. 
• The Jets defense has allowed 141 points against, have sacked the opposing QBs 9 times, and have forced 11 turnovers. 

As bad as the Patriots defense has been this year, the Jets are worse in almost every category. 

• The Patriots rank 28^th against the pass and 6^th against the rush. 
• The Jets rank 5^th against the pass and 28^th against the rush. 

That’s very interesting going into Sunday’s game as the Patriots last week against the Seahawks, passed the ball 58 times. The Jets last week against the Colts rushed the ball 44 times. Now that seems like the defense’s would be somewhat equal going into Sunday’s game as the stats would say the Patriots offense will struggle to pass the ball and the Jet’s defense will struggle to run the ball. The deciding factor though will be that the Patriots have another option besides just passing the ball as they rank 4^th in the NFL in rushing with 152.3 yards a game! The Jets on the other hand have no other option besides running the ball. Sure they can pass but their QB doesn’t even complete half of his passes! To be considered a legit NFL QB, critics would say you need to reach at least 60% in completion percentage, while the Jets’ Sanchez has struggled to reach 50% this season.

In my mind the Patriots have a decided advantage on offense, defense, and coaching going into Sunday’s matchup. Aaron Hernandez who had a good game on Sunday in his return  against the Seahawks will only get healthier and more productive in the weeks ahead. Stevan Ridley only rushed the ball 16 times last week and will be rested when he faces the 28^th ranked rushing defense this week. The Jets usually play the Patriots tough for the main fact that these teams knows each other so well and it’s tough to surprise them with any type of new game plan. This Jets team however is much weaker on the defensive end than they usually are and their offense is struggling much more than in past years.  

Prediction:

Patriots 42 – Jets 20

P.S. – I’m actually quite proud of myself for not mentioning Tim Tebow once in this whole preview. WP.