Week 5 Preview: Patriots vs. Broncos aka Brady vs Manning

Alright I know it’s only Wednesday but I’m so pumped for this game on Sunday against the Broncos that I had to write the pregame analysis now. Just watching the way the Pat’s offense moved up and down the field in the 2^nd half on Sunday was beautiful. Brady has started to look very comfortable with Brandon Lloyd, especially on those back shoulder routes near the sidelines. That’s the type of play it usually takes years to master between a QB and a wide out and these two have made it look effortless thus far after only 4 games together. It’s funny because Brady and Lloyd remind me of the way Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison worked together for many years in Indy. Brady seems to know where Lloyd will be at all times and has the confidence in him to make a catch in big time situations. I only see them getting better as the year goes on. Wes Welker, who leads the team in receptions and receiving yards, has played tremendous the last 3 weeks. He has carried the offense at times and always seems to be open, especially when the Pats need a clutch 3^rd down conversion.  Gronk hasn’t been thrown to as much so far this season as he did last year but that is to be expected with the addition of Lloyd and the new-found rushing attack. He is still, along with Welker, one of Brady’s go to guys, especially in the red zone. The running game made a huge impact in Sunday’s game as Stevan Ridley and Brandon Bolden both passed the 100 yard marks.  I don’t expect that type of performance this week as the Denver defense is only allowing 87.5 yards a game, but I still think just having the threat of a decent rushing attack is enough to relieve the pressure off of Brady to win every game with his arm.

I think this will be a very close-fought tough game. Both teams possess a balanced attack on offense and defenses whom have tons of playmakers. The Broncos defensive line and linebacking core is one of the most athletic in the NFL. Both DE Elvis Dumervil and LB Von Miller are dangerous threats to Brady’s well-being in the pocket. They are quick, agile and smart and have been terrorizing opposing QB’s for the past year and a half. Veteran Elvis Dumervil has 2.5 sacks this year but 55 in his career and second year sensation Von Miller has 3 sacks this year after posting an 11.5 sack year in 2011. Also on the Broncos defense is future Hall of Famer Champ Bailey. The 14 year veteran cornerback out of the University of Georgia has no picks so far this year but has 50 in his career and is always a threat to take one back for a TD.

The Broncos offense, much like the Patriots, has been a work in progress so far this year. But after seeing them trounce the Raiders 36-7 last weekend, it looks as if the Peyton Manning taught offense has finally come around. As everyone knows Manning loves to have complete control of his guys at the line of scrimmage and for many years in Indianapolis it was very successful because he constantly had the same personnel on the field with whom he was very comfortable with. To start this year it was obvious the Broncos players were not yet comfortable with the offense and it showed as they barely ran the “no-huddle” type offense that Manning loves. Last week was the first time they were able to run the no-huddle with success and that could pose a problem to the Pats. Obviously the more Manning plays, the more confident and successful the Broncos offense will be. Last week Manning was awesome going 30-38 with 338 yards and 3 TD. At wide receiver the Broncos have several dangerous weapons. WR Demaryius Thomas leads the team with 325 yards receiving and also has 22 receptions. WR Eric Decker leads them in receptions with 24 and has collected 322 yards receiving. Both of these guys were very productive last week against the Raiders and they seem to be gaining the confidence of their QB. Thomas had 5 catches for 103 yards while Decker caught 7 balls for 79 yards and a TD.

The Broncos rushing attack is led by veteran Willis McGahee who has compiled 325 yards on the ground this season. On Sunday McGahee had 19 rushes for 112 yards. It was his 32^nd career 100 yards rushing performance, which is the most of any active running back in the NFL. That is such a remarkable accomplishment  since most people thought he may never play (or even walk) again after tearing his ACL, MCL, PCL and knee cartilage in that gruesome hit that took place in the memorable 2001 BCS National Championship game where Ohio State defeated McGahee’s Miami Hurricanes 31-24 in OT.

Last Sunday the Broncos game vs. the Raiders very much resembled the Patriots game as the Broncos outscored the Raiders 27-0 in the 2^nd half after playing a close 1^st half. These teams are built in very similar ways and I think that will translate to a very close game. The Patriots offensive line may have an issue containing the Broncos front seven as Logan Mankins may possibly miss another game. But who knows, last week I thought the same thing about Mario Williams and never ever heard his name mentioned on Sunday. I expect the Pats rushing numbers to go down this week as the Broncos defense is much better than Buffalo’s was. I expect Brady to play his normal all-pro type game and I think we will continue to see great production out of both Welker and Gronk. I think this week Brandon Lloyd will be the star of the show. His progression within the offense is well documented and I can see him having a huge game against the Broncos, the team he played for from ‘09-’11. Although Lloyd had made several spectacular catches (see picture below) I want to see him used as a deep threat more often. He has the speed and the ability to make these types of catches and if they were able to do this, the middle of the field would open even more for guys like Welker and Gronk.

On the defensive side of the ball I think the Patriots are continuing to improve and I think this week will be no different. The Patriots rush defense has been so-so this year and I can see them struggling a bit facing a RB like Willis McGahee. But I think allowing some rushing yards will be ok if they’re able to limit what Manning can do when he drops back in the pocket. The Patriots key for a week 5 victory will be the ability of the defensive line and the linebackers to pressure Manning. For the past decade, every time the Patriots faced Manning, especially in Foxboro, and were able to pressure him, Manning failed miserably. Guys like Chandler Jones, and Brandon Spikes, who looked unstoppable last week, need to get to Manning. It is so important because if they give him time, Manning will pick apart our secondary and put up huge numbers. So far this year the defense has been able to come up with huge turnovers at key times in the game. You can’t count of lucky plays happening like that every week so they need to force Manning into making mistakes. When Manning is pressured he throws picks. He always has and he always will. He’s not agile enough to evade the rush and create time and space for himself so he relies on his offensive line for protection. That’s why you always see him yelling at his offensive line every time he’s losing a game. If they don’t protect him, they lose. It’s crucial that they apply pressure because if they do, the secondary will be able to intercept him. For the most part in the past, when these two future Hall of Fame QB’s have faced-off in Foxboro, Brady has been on the winning side. Call me stupid but I’m starting to trust this defense and their ability to cause the big turnover and I think once again Brady will end up on top.

Prediction: Patriots 38 – Broncos 31

P.S. – Steven Gostkowski better get his head out of his ass and start making field goals again. He’s been one of the best in the league the last few years but for some reason this year he couldn’t hit the sand if he were standing in the middle of the fucking Sahara. Get it together kid!